DJIA Forecast Performance Score for 2005
The goal of the score is to provide objective measure of the forecast.
Score Rules:
The forecast should be used for swing trading only.
1 for direction match between forecast and actual
0 for direction mismatch between forecast and actual
1 If inversion occur during the trading week and members are alerted of inversion of high,lows or direction before it occur.
0 If inversion occur during the trading week and members are not alerted of inversion of high,lows or direction before it occur.
|
Forecast |
Actual |
YTD Total Accuracy | |||
| January 2005 |
Direction |
Score |
(Correct Forecast/Total Forecast) |
||
|
1st week(3-7) |
Down from 3rd to 7th |
Down from 3rd to 7th |
match |
1 |
(1/1) 100% |
|
2nd week(10-14) |
Consolidation from 10-14 |
Consolidation from 10-14 |
match |
1 |
(2/2) 100% |
|
3rd week(17-21) |
High of the week around 18th then down |
High of the week around 18th then down |
match |
1 |
(3/3) 100% |
|
4th week(24-28) |
Low of the week around 24th then up |
Low of the week on 24th then up |
match |
1 |
(4/4) 100% |
|
February 2005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1st week(1-4) |
Uptrend to the end of the week |
Uptrend to the end of the week |
match |
1 |
(5/5) 100% |
|
2nd week(7-11) |
Downtrend to the end of the week |
Uptrend to the end of the week |
mismatch |
0 |
(5/6) 83% |
|
3rd week(14-18) |
High early in the week then down |
High early in the week then down |
match |
1 |
(6/7) 86% |
|
4th week(22-25) |
Low around 23rd then up |
Low around 23rd then up |
match |
1 |
(7/8) 88% |
|
March 2005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Consolidation to uptrend to the end of the week |
Consolidation to uptrend to the end of the week |
match |
1 |
(8/9) 89% |
|
|
High around the middle of the week(8th or 9th) then down. |
High on 3/7/2005 then down. |
match |
1 |
(9/10) 90% |
|
|
Consolidation to downtrend. |
Downtrend |
match |
1 |
(10/11) 91% |
|
|
Low around 3/22/2005 then consolidation to uptrend. |
Low on 3/23/2005 then uptrend(Higher high and higher low on 3/24/2005) |
match |
1 |
(11/12) 92% |
|
|
Consolidation to downtrend |
Consolidation to downtrend |
match |
1 |
(12/13) 92% |
|
|
April 2005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Low around 4/4/2005 then up |
Low on 4/4/2005 then up |
match |
1 |
(13/14) 93% |
|
|
Trending up Inversion Forecast on 4/14 indicating the trend invert and becoming down |
DJIA Close trended up on 4/11 and 4/12. DJIA Close on 4/13 confirmed inversion. Elite Group were alerted on 4/14(before market opened) of inversion. Inversion confirmed with trend became lower on 4/14 and 4/15. |
match since inversion forecasted correctly and Elite Group were alerted of inversion |
1 |
(14/15) 93.3% |
|
|
3rd week(18-22) |
Low around 4/18-4/19 then consolidation to trending higher. |
Low on 4/20 then trending higher |
match |
1 |
(15/16) 93.8% |
|
4th week(25-29) |
Consolidation to trending higher |
Consolidation to trending lower |
mismatch |
0 |
(15/17) 88% |
|
May 2005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1st week(2-6) |
Trending higher |
Trending higher |
match |
1 |
(16/18) 88.8% |
|
2nd week(9-13) |
Consolidation to trending higher |
Consolidation to trending lower |
mismatch |
0 |
(16/19) 84.2 % |
|
3rd week(16-20) |
Trending higher |
Trending higher |
match |
1 |
(17/20) 85% |
|
4th week(23-27) |
Not posted due to I was unavailable |
|
|
|
|
|
June 2005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1st week(1-3) |
Consolidation |
Consolidation |
match |
1 |
(18/21) 85.7% |
|
2nd week(6-10) |
Trending higher until around 6/8/2005 then down if Monday close on 6/6/2005 is higher than Friday close on 6/3/205. If Monday close below Friday close then a low will be around 6/8/2005 then market will trend higher. |
High on 6/7/2005 then down |
match |
1 |
(19/22) 86.3% |
|
3rd week(13-17) |
High around 13 then down |
High on the 17th then down |
unmatch |
0 |
(19/23) 82.6% |
|
4th week(20-23) |
No forecast |
|
|
|
|
|
June 24th |
Down |
Down |
match |
1 |
(20/24) 83.3% |
|
June 27th |
Down |
Down |
match |
1 |
(21/25) 84.0% |
|
July 2005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1st week(6-8) |
Low around 7/6 then up |
Low on 7/7 then up |
match |
1 |
(22/26) 84.6% |
|
Forecast invresion on 7/5/2005 |
High around 7/6 then down |
Low on 7/7 then up |
unmatch |
0 |
(22/27) 81.5% |
|
7/18 |
Down |
Down |
match |
1 |
(23/28) 82.1% |
|
7/18-7/22 |
Consolidation to down |
Consolidation |
match |
1 |
(24/29) 82.8% |
|
7/26-7/29 |
Down trend |
Consolidation |
unmatch |
0 |
(24/30) 80% |
|
7/25/2005 |
There is evidence of "High" short to intermediate term in DJIA. |
High has formed |
match |
1 |
(25/31) 80.6% |
|
August 2005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1st wk(1-5) |
Consolidation to Down |
Consolidation to Down |
match |
1 |
(26/32) 81.25% |
|
Monday 8/1/2005 |
Down |
Down |
match |
1 |
(27/33) 81.8% |
|
August 8-12 |
Consolidation |
Consolidation |
match |
1 |
(28/34) 82.35% |
|
Monday 8/8/2005 |
Down |
Down |
match |
1 |
(29/35) 82.85% |
|
Monday 8/15/2005 |
Down |
Up |
unmatch |
0 |
(29/36) 80.55% |
|
August 15-19 |
Consolidation to up |
Consolidation to up |
match |
1 |
(30/37) 81.08% |
|
Forecast date 8/7/2005 |
Possible Low around 8/16/2005 |
Actual low 8/17/2002 |
match |
1 |
(31/38) 81.57% |
|
8/18/2005 email update |
There is evidence that the low has shifted slightly. The expected low of the
week is today 5/18/2005. |
Nasdaq and SP 500 made a low on 8/18/2005. DJIA low remain slightly shifted to 8/17/2005 |
match |
1 |
(32/39) 82.05% |
|
Consolidation to Up until around 8/24/2005 then down. |
Short consolidation with high on 8/22/2005 then down |
match |
1 |
(33/40) 82.5% |
|
|
8/21/2005 |
Possible High around 8/24/2005. |
High on 8/22/2005 |
match |
1 |
(34/41) 82.92% |
|
September 2005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Low around 8/30/2005 then Consolidation to Up |
Low on 8/29/2005 then Consolidation to Up |
match |
1 |
(35/42) 83.33% |
|
|
8/28/2005 |
Low around 8/30/2005 |
Low on 8/29/2005 |
match |
1 |
(36/43) 83.72% |
|
9/5/2005 |
September 6-9 is consolidation |
Trending Up |
unmatch |
0 |
(36/44) 81.81% |
|
9/11/2005 |
Consolidation to Up until around 9/15 then down |
High on 9/12/205 then down. |
match |
1 |
(37/45) 82.22% |
|
9/11/2005 |
Possible High around 9/15/2005 |
High on 9/12/2005 |
match |
1 |
(38/46) 82.61% |
|
9/18/2005 |
If Monday close beow Friday close then DJIA will go down to 9/21/2005 |
Monday closed below Friday and market wend dow with a low on 9/22/2005 |
match |
2(1 for direction and 1 for Low around 9/21/2005 |
(40/48) 83.33% |
|
10/3/2005 |
Forecast for September 26-30: Consolidation to Up Trend. |
Consolidation ealy in the week then Up with the highest high was of Friday 9/30/2005 |
match |
1 |
(41/49) 83.67% |
|
11/6/2005 |
Low early in the week around 10/3/2005 then consolidation to slightly up. |
High on 10/3(DJIA close) then consolidation |
mismatch then match |
1 out of 2 |
(42/51) 82.35% |
|
November 2005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
11/6/2005 |
Range from consolidation to slightly down |
Forecast matched actual (in consolidation)part early in the week then mismatch in late part pf the weel(up trend). |
match then mismatch |
1 out of 2 |
(43/53) 81.13% |
|
12/4/2005 |
Consolidation |
Forecast for 11/21-11/25 called for consolidation with highest close of the month forecasted to be 11/23/2005 as posted in my chart on 11/6/2005. The actual highest close of November came on 11/25/2005 just 2 days later than the forecasted date. This is good enough for me to call for a match despite slight shift of 2 days. |
match |
1 |
(44/54) 81.48% |
Haytham