2005 Forecast

2005 DJIA forecast

1/3/2005

Here is January 2005 forecast:

1/9/2005

DJIA forecast posted on 1/3/2005 showed DJIA will decrease from the beginning of the week until the end of the week. Actual result matched the forecast.

Inversion forecast: I am watching period between 1/16-1/19 to determine if inversion will take place.

1/13/2005

Tomorrow is very important day. There is evidence that minor and major inversion is taking place.Tomorrow close if lower that today then we are heading to a low around the 18 of January(minor inversion).Major inversion for this month is the end of this month will be lower than the beginning of this month.

1/23/2005

DJIA Forecast Performance Score

4th week(24-28): Low of the week around 24th then up.

1/31/2005

DJIA Forecast Performance Score
February 2005 forecast is posted below.
1st week(1-4) of February: uptrend to the end of the week.

2/1/2005

Low around 2/2/2005.

2/6/2005

Low occurred 2/3/2005.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score remained 100%

2nd week(7th-11th) of February: Downtrend to the end of the week.

2/13//2005

The forecast for 2nd week(7th-11th): right on direction, wrong on overall trend. Analysis of the forecast shows expected low around 2/10, the actual low came 2/9, then DJIA expected to go higher but not to be higher then the beginning of the week, the actual came higher but it was higher than the beginning of the week, this caused the overall trend to flip upward measuring it from beginning to the end of the week. Take a look here.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score is 83%.

3rd week(14-18) of February: High early in the week then down.

2/15/2005

Today marks the high of the week. Any close above today's high will cause inversion which will lead the market higher to the end of the week.
Forecast remain on track.

2/20/2005

The forecast matched the actual, DJIA made high early in the week then down.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score is 86%.

4th week(22-25) of February: Low around 2/23/2005 then up.

3/1/2005

The forecast for the 4th week of February matched actual.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score is 88%.

Forecast for 1st week of March(1-4): consolidation to uptrend to the end of the week.

3/6/2005

DJIA forecast for the 1st week of February matched the actual.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 89%.

DJIA Forecast for 2nd week of March(7-11): High around the middle of the week(8th or 9th) then down.

3/8/2005

Inversion Alert: There is some evidence inversion is taking place in DJIA: If tomorrow's DJIA close is above today's close then DJIA is heading higher to the end of the week.

3/13/2005

DJIA forecast for the second week of March matched the actual with actual high on 3/7/2005 while forecast was 8-9/2005. The DJIA then went down as forecasted.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 90%.

DJIA forecast for the 3rd week of March(14-18): Consolidation to down trend.

3/20/2005

The forecast direction matched the actual. I expected to have some more consolidation but selling pressure was more pronounced than consolidation, however it did not exceed the forecast.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 91%.

DJIA forecast for the 4th week of March(21-25): Low around 3/22/2005 then consolidation to uptrend.

3/28/2005

DJIA Low occurred on 3/23/2005(Forecast called for a Low around 3/22/2005 then consolidation to uptrend). 5/24/2005 daily bar shows higher high with higher low consistent with the forecast direction, therefore forecast direction matched actual.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 92%.

DJIA forecast for the 5th week of March(28-31): Consolidation to downtrend.

4/3/2005

DJIA Forecast for the 5th week of March matched the actual:Consolidation to downtrend.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 92. 3%

DJIA Forecast for the 1st week of April(4-8): Low around the 4th of April then Up.

4/10/2005

The forecast for the last week matched the the actual with low on 4/4/2005 then trending up.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 93%

DJIA Close Forecast for 2nd week of April(11-15): Trending up with no important high or low.

4/14/2005(before market open)

1st Inversion Forecast for DJIA in year 2005: Monday(4/11/2005) and Tuesday(4/12/2005) behaved as forecasted(trending higher). Wednesday Close(4/13/2005) is lower than forecast indicating inversion is taking place. Get Out of the market if you are long or make your stop very tight.

4/17/2005

Inversion forecasted correctly for 4/14/2005 and 4/15/2005: The trend reversed to downside.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 93. 3 %

DJIA Close Forecast for the 3rd week(4/18-4/22): Low around 4/18-4/19 then consolidation to trending higher.

4/24/2005

Forecast direction matched actual result with an actual low on 4/20(1 day later than the forecast window).

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 93. 8 %

Forecast for the 4th week of April(25-29): Consolidation to trending higher.

4/29/2005(before market open)

2nd Inversion Forecast for DJIA in year 2005: Monday(4/25/2005),Tuesday(4/26/2005) and Wednesday(4/27/2005) behaved as forecasted(Consolidation: Up Monday, Down Teusday and Up Wednesday). Thursday actual close(4/28/2005) is down (forecast is Up) indicating inversion is taking place. Get Out of the market if you are long or make your stop very tight.

Based on Thursday close(4/28/2005): Forecast changed to : Consolidation to trending "lower" for the week 4/25/2005-4/29-2005.

5/1/2005:

Analysis of last week forecast(4/25-4/29): Although consolidation was forecasted correctly, the trending part of the forecast was inaccurate, therefore I will say Forecast mismatch the actual and no point will be given.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score decreased to 88%(15 correct forecast / 17 total ).

DJIA Forecast for May 2 to May 6th : Trending higher.

5/8/2005:

Forecast matched actual for May 2 to May 6th.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 88.8 %(16 correct forecast / 18 total ).

DJIA Forecast for May 9th to May 13th:Consolidation to trending higher.

5/15/2005:

Forecast mismatched actual for May 9th to May 13th: Actual result came as: Consolidation to trending lower mismatching forecast for DJIA and SP500 and Consolidation to trending higher( for Nasdaq)matching forecast. The main component was consolidation.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score decreased to 84.2 %(16 correct forecast / 19 total ).

DJIA Forecast for May 16th- May 20th: Trending higher.

Some has requested a chart for May:

5/30/2005

Forecast for May 16th-May 20th matched actual with DJIA trended higher.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 85% (17 correct forecast / 20 total ).

Forecast period for May 23-May27 not posted due to I was not available.

Forecast for the 1st week of June(1-3): Nontrending market(consolidation). I define consolidation as no big movement up or down.

Some may like graph for June but read my notes every week before you look at the graph:

6/5/2005

Forecast matched actual result(consolidation). DJIA only moved 6 point from 6/1/2005 to 6/3/2005.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 85.7% (18 correct forecasts / 21 total ).

DJIA forecast for June 6-10: Trending higher until around 6/8/2005 then down if Monday close on 6/6/2005 is higher than Friday close on 6/3/205. If Monday close below Friday close then a low will be around 6/8/2005 then market will trend higher.

6/12/2005

Forecast matched actual result with high of the week occurred on 6/7/2005(Forecast for 6/8/2005).

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 86.3% (19 correct forecasts / 22 total ).

DJIA forecast for June 13-17: High around 6/13/2005 then down.

6/23/2005

Forecast for June 13-17 unmatched actual result.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score decreased to 82.6% (19 correct forecasts / 23 total ).

No forecast for June 20-23.

Forecast for June 24: Down. I am shorting at the open.

6/26/2005

Forecast matched actual result for June 24.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 83.3% (20 correct forecasts / 24 total ).

Due to extreme volatility, I will narrorw forecast range to 1-5 days based on my analysis of the situation.

Forecast for June 27: Down. I will cover part of my shorts and move my stop to lock profit on remaining open position.

7/4/2005

Forecast matched actual for June 27.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 84.0% (21 correct forecasts / 25 total ).

Forecast for July 5-8 : Low around 7/6 then up.

Forecast chart for July(Don't look at chart without reading my forecast because inversion can take place.)

7/5/2005

Inversion Forecast: Inversion is taking place----> High around 7/6 then down.

7/17/2005

Forecast did not matched actual for 7/5/2005. My original forecast(Low around 7/6 then up) was accurate.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score decreased to 81.4% (22 correct forecasts / 27 total ).

Forecast for July 18-22 : Consolidation to down.

Forecast for Monday 7/18/2005:Down.

There is a say:"All things comes to one who knows how to wait". I sometimes don't post any forecast because I am not able to give highly accurate forecast and your forecast then will be as good as mine, so please don't be frustrated if a forecast is not posted on expected time.

7/25/2005

Forecast matched actual for 7/18/2005 and generally for the period 7/18 -7/22 with down day on 7/18 then 2 days up(7/19&7/20) then 2 days with lower close than 7/20. Consolidation was the dominant part.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 82.8% (24 correct forecasts / 29 total ).

Forecast for July 26-29: Down trend.

There is evidence of "High" short to intermediate term in DJIA.

7/31/2005

Forecast unmatched actual. Actual is consolidation pattern and formation of High.

The High has formed.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score decreased to 80.6% (25 correct forecasts / 31 total ).

DJIA will trend down until around August 16th.

Forecast for August 1-5: Consolidation to down.

Monday 8/1/2005 forecast is down.

Here is the monthly forecast:

8/7/2005

Forecast matched actual: Consolidation to downtrend and Monday was down.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 81.8% (27 correct forecasts / 33 total ).

Forecast for August 8-12: Consolidation.

Monday 8/8/2005 forecast is Down.

8/14/2005

Forecast matched actual: Consolidation and Monday was down.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 82.8% (29 correct forecasts / 35 total ).

Forecast for August 15-19: Consolidation to Up.

Monday 8/15/2005 is down.

Possible Low around 8/16/2005.

8/21/2005

Monday Forecast did not match actual but Consolidation to Up, Possible Low around 8/16/2005 and email update matched actual.

Forecast for August 22-26: Consolidation to Up until around 8/24/2005 then down.

Possible High around 8/24/2005.

8/28/2005

Forecast matched actual with an early High on 8/22/2005.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 82.92% (34 correct forecasts / 41 total ).

Forecast for August 29-September 2:Low around 8/30/2005 then Consolidation to Up.

Possible Low around 8/30/2005.

Here is DJIA September forecast:

9/5/2005

Forecast matched actual with lowest low occurred 8/29/2005 then consolidation to up.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 83.72% (36 correct forecasts / 43 total ).

If you take a look at the chart for August you will see that the forecast matched the actual: Early high in beginning of August then down to the end of August.

Forecast for September 6-9:Consolidation.

9/11/2005

Forecast unmatched actual. Forecast called for consolidation and the actual was trending up.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score decreased to 81.81% (36 correct forecasts / 44 total ).

Forecast for September 12-16:Consolidation to Up until around 9/15 then down.

Possible High around 9/15.

9/18/2005

Forecast matched actual. Forecast called for consolidation to Up until around 9/15/2005. The actual high came earlier on 9/12 then down.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 82.61% (38 correct forecasts / 46 total ).

Forecast for September 19-23: Inversion to monthly forecast above with High around 9/21 if tomorrow's close is higher than Friday's close, otherwise DJIA will go down to 9/21/2005.

9/25/2005

Forecast matched actual: Monday 9/19/2005 closed below Friday close, therefore the market went down and made a low on 9/22/2005.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 83.33% (40 correct forecasts / 48 total ).

Forecast for September 26-30: Consolidation to Up Trend(See monthly chart above).

10/2/2005

Forecast matched actual:Consolidation ealy in the week then Up with the highest high was of Friday 9/30/2005.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increased to 83.67% (41 correct forecasts / 49 total ).

2 Forecast for October 3-7:Low early in the week around 10/3/2005 then consolidation to slightly up.

10/5/2005

I am submitting my forecast chart for the month of October:

I am retiring from giving any forecast for 1 moon cycle period. The chart above is for this group to interpret the way you want. My initial analysis to above chart is inversion to chart may be taking place*(this is not a forecast). I will be back next moon cycle.

11/6/2005

Forecast for October 3-7 called for Low on 10/3/2005 then consolidation to slight up. The actual came High on 10/3/2005(DJIA close) then consolidation pattern. The rest of October was an inversion to October chart as my initial analysis indicated.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score decreased to 82.35% (42 correct forecasts / 51 total ).

Forecast for November 7- 11: Range from consolidation to slightly down.

Here is the chart for the month of November:

11/13/2005

Forecast matched actual (in consolidation)part early in the week then mismatch in late part pf the weel(up trend).

DJIA Forecast Performance Score decreased to 81.13% (43 correct forecasts / 53 total ).

No forecast for November 11-18.

11/20/2005

Forecast for 11/21-11/25: Consolidation.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score remain 81.13% (43 correct forecasts / 53 total ).

12/04/2005

Forecast for 11/21-11/25 called for consolidation with highest close of the month forecasted to be 11/23/2005 as posted in my chart on 11/6/2005. The actual highest close of November came on 11/25/2005 just 2 days later than the forecasted date. This is good enough for me to call for a match despite slight shift of 2 days.

DJIA Forecast Performance Score increase to 81.48% (44 correct forecasts / 54 total ).

No forecast comments for December.

Here is the month of December:

Haytham

PS, Above is my opinion and not trading advise.